Making the call

Emily West, Marlin Drive East, is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, but for several days each election year, she becomes an analyst for the Decision Desk at CBS in New York.
While finishing her PhD from New York University, she worked at CBS during the nine months leading to the 2016 presidential election. During that time, she analyzed survey data and built her own forecasting model, which accurately predicted close swing states.
“My model was doing better at predicting states like Michigan,” West said. “But I was using data that other pollsters were also using. My explanation for why the model was performing better than some other people’s models … I was just being more agnostic about it, [using] the variables I have, and I wasn’t trying to get the model to tell me something I believe.”
She predicted Donald Trump’s win in 2016 based on her model, which most of her colleagues didn’t believe until after that came true.
Upon graduating, West moved from New York City to Pittsburgh, which she said allows her to “keep her finger on the pulse” of elections and politics. “I feel really grateful to live in Pittsburgh in particular, because I think it gives me a lot of insight,” she said.
For national midterm and general elections, West returns to New York, serving as an analyst behind the scenes. The Decision Desk crew rehearses for two full days, using fake data to test prediction models and analyze exit polls. “Since we do it every two years, it’s primarily to re-remember the modeling, buttons, numbers and layout of the program. And we’re always innovating, so there are things we need to rehearse,” West explained.
On election night, West settled in on set, just out of camera view, for the 6 p.m. to 4 a.m. shift. As polls closed throughout the evening, CBS received the data. States with clear winners automatically entered the production system and ran on the live broadcast. When it was too close or too early to call, that’s when West and others analyzed the vote data, until they felt confident in a result.
West hopes to continue serving as an election analyst for the foreseeable future. “It’s a really enriching experience. It’s stressful, but I always learn a lot.”